Is offline GOTV going to become obsolete?
Will the internet and its many uses in political campaigns ever fully replace traditional offline GOTV efforts? I personally do not think so. Frank Watkin's article does a great job of describing how computer technology may be applied to a political campaign - in the case of his example, an Illinois congressional campaign - specifically, how this technology can be used to target potential voters. In my experience on the campaign trail, I have seen such targeted techniques used in campaigns. They are quite fascinating and effective. Even James Verini and Matt Bai offer up descriptions of the Bush campaigns effectiveness utilizing technology and marketing techniques to get out their vote on election day in 2004. There is no doubt these techniques are important, but they must exist in addition to offline activities as well.
For example, the well disciplined and organized Bush effort in 2004 would not have been a reality if it were not for the actual people on the ground month and weeks before Election Day. Victory would not have been a relality without actual people on the ground implementing the targeted approaches these new technological advantages provide for modern campaigns. I also do not think that Americans will ever really tolerate not being personally and physically involved in the election of their leaders. If classic GOTV techniques were ever to become the exception to an American political campaign, rather than the rule, something of the campaign would be lost. While these new technologies will help in voter targeting and marketing for campaigns, the classic campaign characteristics of workers passing out literature, volunteers going door-to-door and candidates making personal appearances and pleas for support at local events and locations, will and should never die.

3 Comments:
I'm with you in thinking that grassroots can never fully be an online event. When speaking about offline-online synergy, GOTV is one of the best examples of where it needs to mesh. While sending a personalized e-mail is one way to connect to a voter, most are aware that you did not write the newsletter yourself. But door to door canvassing and campaign rallies give a potential voter a personal connection to a candidate (or in most cases a staffer or volunteer). It gives them a reason to choose you on election day. In an ideal election, technology can be used, as you said, to target voters and determine strategy, but the heart of the campaign will remain with the people on the ground.
I think the best evidence for this is Howard Dean's campaign. He used all the technology available in Iowa and NH, but in the end, the people voted for the people they met and liked - the ones who had used local people to do the GOTV.
Technology is a tool. Like all tools, it can be very effective when used well, but too often people get mesmerized by it, and believe it can replace proven techniques. The people who learn to use the tool the most effectively will be the most successful.
It all goes back to the idea of "Influentials." What we read online about a candidate will rarely change our votes. But, if we are one of those 9 people who are influenced by an influential volunteer from a campaign, our votes just might change.
Technology will not make the "people" part of grassroots obsolete. It will just be the enabler for a campaign to better inform and organize their volunteers.
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