The Hillary Factor

Since the moment that John Kerry conceded Ohio and thus the presidency, it's been hard not to steal looks at the '08 race, even 3+ years away. My first reaction to a Clinton run was "No way." After the savaging Kerry took in the final months of the campaign, I was too burned out to even think about what it would be like were she to run.

But, slowly but surely, I've been coming around to her candidacy.

The chief reason for my reversal, as far as I've been able to determine, is that she would run a smart campaign. The only thing more frustrating than the results of the Gore and Kerry campaigns were the ways in which the campaigns were run.

Clinton would certainly cover the seemingly obvious bases of having a coherent message and covering traditional Dem weak spots like national security, but the question does remain as to whether that would be enough to overcome the high negatives she'd enter the race with. As someone who has made professional politics my career choice, it's probably no surprise that I think a smartly run campaign can overcome almost anything--just look at Nixon in '68!

On that note, Greg Sargent's profile of the Senator in this week's The Nation paints a portrait of a very well run campaign:

"We're seeing the slow and steady erosion of what made America great in the twentieth century," Clinton told her audience in an even tone. "When I got to the Senate I asked myself, What's going on here? At first I thought the President just wanted to undo everything my husband had done." Clinton waited a beat, then added, "And I did take that personally."

The audience laughed. "But then I thought, Wait a minute. It's not just about turning the clock back on the 1990s.... They want to turn the clock back on most of the twentieth century. They want to turn the clock all the way back beyond Franklin Roosevelt. Back beyond Teddy Roosevelt. That's why they're trying to undo Social Security. Make no mistake about it.

"What I see happening in Washington," Clinton continued, "is a concerted effort by the Administration and the leadership in Congress to really create absolute power. They want to control the judiciary so they can have all three branches of government. I really don't care what party you are--that's not in the American tradition.... Right now young men and women are putting their lives on the line in Iraq and Afghanistan, fighting for the America we revere. And that is a country where nobody has all the answers--and nobody should have all the power.... We all need to stand up for what made America great--what created a wonderful set of values that we revere, that we exported and tried to really inculcate in people around the world!"

Wild applause rolled over Clinton now, although it was unclear whether the crowd had appreciated the political subtleties of what they'd witnessed. She had offered a critique of the GOP sharp enough for any progressive--even as she'd given an approving nod to American exceptionalism and a paean to US troops defending our "values" abroad. She'd stoked the partisan passions of her audience--even as she'd sounded an above-partisanship note of concern about the state of the Republic. Indeed, she'd managed to pull off what many Democrats struggle to do these days: She'd weaved her criticisms into a larger narrative about America's past and future, criticizing the GOP leadership without sounding as if she wanted America to fail--when she said she was "worried" about America, you believed her.

I'd recommend the entire article to anyone interested in the topic of Hillary in '08, and, really, who isn't? With the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released today showing that 53% of people surveyed would likely vote for Clinton were she to run for president, this is something that will certainly be sticking with us for a while.